Gold moved to overweight this month, basically on a valuation play. The materials sector of the stock market also looks attractive at this point, so another option would be to look at the Gold Miners in addition to the a gold fund. International developed markets also remained an overweight, extending the streak of overweights to 8 months. This has been a profitable overweight call. Global REITs remained underweight, and this has been a not so profitable call. Early indicators for November show foreign REITS to go to equal weight.
This month Developed market remained overweight as the Euro is forecasted to continue to strenthen against the dollar. Interestingly, Gold went to underweight, seeming to strengthen the weaker dollar scenario. Perhaps related to the possible risk of a repeat of a debt ceiling debacle as in 2014. International REITsremain stubbornly underweight, thou
Vanguard Global ex-US REIT remained underweight, though August continued its 5th month streak of incorrect under-performance prediction. This model may have to be looked at more closely to see if some of the indicators are broken.
This month, only developed International markets remained overweight, with the US Stock market predicted to have a slow month and consolidate its July gains. Gold was also downgraded to neutral after a 2.3% gain in July. International REITs continue to be listed as underweight for the fourth straight month. During this period, the prediction as has been wrong each month, so take this free advice for what it is worth.
Early indicators show little change for September, but that can change at any time.
Lots of changes this month, as the technical model code was refactored, revealing some bugs and opportunities for optimization. The biggest news is the technical model moved the S&P to overweight, and in ‘buy the dips’ mode. Preliminary August figures show the S&P 500 returning to neutral.
Developed Foreign markets also moved to overweight, as did Gold for the first time in awhile.
Global REITs remain in the underweight camp – the model has been wrong on this one for the last few months – maybe now it will get it right.