VFS Invest

VFS Asset Class and US Stock Sector Forecast Model

Below is the current month forecast for asset class and US stock market sector performance. Each month the model evaluations various technical factors to determine which areas of the market will outperform or underperform.

please wait
Actual Forecast {{assetClassTool.AssetClassRatings.LastPerformanceProjectionPeriodDescr}} Projected Forecast {{assetClassTool.AssetClassRatings.CurrentPerformanceProjectionPeriodDescr}}
Asset Class Funds
Momentum Indicator
{{assetClass.ClassName}} Weak Negative Momentum Negative Momentum Strong Negative Momentum No Momentum Coorelation Weak Momentum Positive Momentum Strong Momentum

Stock Sector Funds
Momentum Indicator
{{sector.ClassName}} Weak Negative Momentum Negative Momentum Strong Negative Momentum No Momentum Coorelation Weak Momentum Positive Momentum Strong Momentum
LEGEND
– Overweight
– Neutral
– Underweight
– Rating Change This Period
Questions? Ideas for Improvement? Please Contact Us.
When a large percentage of asset categories are negative, the VFS asset allocation model adds the excess cash to your cash balance.

Asset Class - These are the asset classes tracked by the tool.

Momentum Indicator - Certain asset classes historically outperformed or underperformed based on historical momentum. VFS tracks this momentum at http://pugetinvestor.com/sectors.aspx. At Puget Investor you can view the current momentum indicator, as well as see historical samples of returns when shifting allocation based on momentum.

indicates positive momentum - based on historical indicators this asset class is predicted to outperform.
indicates negative momentum - based on historical indicators this asset class is predicted to underperform.

Base Allocation - The standard asset allocation that is right for you. There are a number of resources on the internet for helping determine your proper allocation, and determining your asset allocation should be an important first step. The allocations defaulted on this page are not meant to be a recommendation, these are just example values.

Adjusted Allocation - This is your base allocation adjusted by the momentum weighting amount.

Investment Balance - The amount to invest multiplied by the adjusted allocation.

Model Performance Charts


RSS Virtual Dan Investment Articles

  • Zillow vs Redfin November 24, 2020
    I just completed an analysis of Zillow and Redfin, two companies that are competing to disrupt the real estate space. Valuing these companies presents a challenge, because neither currently are […] The post Zillow vs Redfin appeared first on VIRTUAL DAN.
  • Building a Prediction Model Pattern November 13, 2020
    I have been building prediction modeling applications for years as a investor, as a way to try to identify when the various asset classes or particular stocks may be over […] The post Building a Prediction Model Pattern appeared first on VIRTUAL DAN.
  • Adventures in Bonds October 15, 2020
    For years I have held several bond funds, from corporate to high yield and international bonds, and I have been fairly satisfied with that low risk, low return portion of […] The post Adventures in Bonds appeared first on VIRTUAL DAN.
  • The Bond Dilemma September 2, 2020
    The craziness of markets over the last few months caused by the Coronavirus have been incredible. As in investor, I am trying to forecast where we go from here, and […] The post The Bond Dilemma appeared first on VIRTUAL DAN.
  • Rocky Brands Update August 10, 2020
    I just published a new article on Seeking Alpha covering Rocky Brands: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4367000-rocky-brands-online-strategy-provides-profitability-through-pandemic Rocky Brands is an interesting story – one would think they would be hit pretty hard during […] The post Rocky Brands Update appeared first on VIRTUAL DAN.
  • Modern Monetary Theory June 18, 2020
    I have been thinking a lot lately about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) – the economic principle that the US has defacto adopted as part of the COVID-19 stimulus package. One […] The post Modern Monetary Theory appeared first on VIRTUAL DAN.
  • Adams Resources Update June 6, 2020
    I just published another new article on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4351149-adams-resources-energy-bet-on-oil-and-management Adams Resources and Energy is a company I have followed for awhile, and decided to do a deep dive into […] The post Adams Resources Update appeared first on VIRTUAL DAN.
  • Townsquare Media May Be A Bargain May 5, 2020
    I just published a new article on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4342698-townsquare-media-appears-to-be-oversold When I started this article, my thesis was that the drop in the stock price was justified. But after breaking […] The post Townsquare Media May Be A Bargain appeared first on VIRTUAL DAN.
  • Microsoft: Back In The Portfolio May 1, 2020
    Microsoft stock has been one of the few stocks I have tracked consistently over the last 30 years. In 1990 I finally decided to buy Microsoft stock, even though the […] The post Microsoft: Back In The Portfolio appeared first on VIRTUAL DAN.
  • Investing in a Post Coronavirus World April 13, 2020
    I have started to give some thoughts about how to invest in this post coronavirus economic lockdown world, and thinking about how I should adjust my investing thinking in this […] The post Investing in a Post Coronavirus World appeared first on VIRTUAL DAN.